The Gonzaga Bulldogs may just be a sleeping giant this March.
Sitting as the No. 8 seed in the Midwest bracket, the Zags are not on the receiving end of much hype before the Big Dance.
And while the Zags’ 2024-25 résumé may not be up to their lofty standards, their statistical profile suggests that they could be a real threat in the tournament.
Gonzaga opens the tourney as a 6.5-point favorite over Georgia on Thursday afternoon.
Check out which side we’re backing and explore our exclusive bonus code from bet365 Sportsbook below.
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Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction
Gonzaga is a really interesting team to handicap heading into Round 1.
The Zags finished 25-8 on the season, but had a couple of real hiccups during the regular season that cooled the hype around one of the sport’s most consistent programs.
The Zags eventually found their level and won nine of 10 down the stretch, culminating with a 58-51 victory over St. Mary’s in the WCC Championship.
That was an encouraging sign for Mark Few’s side, but the real reason to bullish on the Zags is their underlying numbers. KenPom has Gonzaga ranked as the ninth-best team in his power rankings, but the Zag’s “luck ranking” is all the way down at 341.
In other words: Some bad breaks could be fooling everyone into thinking that Gonzaga is closer to the middle of the field than the top of it.
Everything about Georgia suggests its appropriately ranked as a No. 9 seed. All credit to the Bulldogs for putting together a solid campaign in the brutal SEC, but their underlying metrics don’t leap off the page.
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Gonzaga vs. Georgia pick
Georgia’s defense is its calling card, but it is not an elite unit.
Ranked as the 26th-best unit by KenPom’s defensive efficiency model, the Bulldogs will have their hands full with a Gonzaga side that boasts the ninth-best offense, per KenPom.
The Zags are a considerable favorite for a No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, but that’s because they’ve shown they have a much higher ceiling than your typical No. 8 seed.
That makes Gonzaga a buy team in Round 1 and beyond.
The Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 (-110, bet365)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.