Election guru Nate Silver reveals AOC is Democrat most likely to lead 2028 presidential ticket
“Squad” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is currently the most likely Democrat to lead the party’s presidential ticket in 2028 if she decides to run, election data whiz Nate Silver predicted.
Silver made his early call in the form of a “2028 Democratic primary draft” discussion on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack with “GD Politics” podcast host Galen Druke, who beat him to the pick.
“F–k you,” Silver quipped after Druke named Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his first?choice for whom he expects to win the 2028 Dem primary. “That was going to be my f–king first pick!”
Druke pointed to a recent Yale University poll that found Ocasio-Cortez had one of the highest net favorability ratings among Democrats at +60 points.
That same poll put Ocasio-Cortez in second place in a hypothetical 2028 Dem primary behind former Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke explained. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.”
“I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin.”
Silver replied that “I agree with everything” Druke said, but caveated that he doesn’t know that she’s “sure to run,” what will happen in the interim, or whether Democrats will have concerns about her electability.
Druke was more confident that the Bronz and Queens rep would seek the presidency in 2028, pointing to her “Fighting Oligarchy Tour” across the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Silver also noted that Ocasio-Cortez was polling strongly against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in a hypothetical 2028 Senate matchup despite the fact that “New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc.” He also called her a “canny politician” and “charismatic.”
With Ocasio-Cortez taken, Silver chose Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as his first draft pick.
“In the past three nomination races … you kind of have this compromise candidate where you have the moderates and you have the progressives and you get kind of somewhere in the middle,” Silver explained. “If you’re not going to pick an AOC … then maybe go to someone who’s fully moderate, ‘electable.'”
After Shapiro, Silver selected Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), ESPN host Stephen A. Smith, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), entrepreneur Mark Cuban, and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
Druke selected Harris as his second draft pick, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Rubin Gallego (D-Ariz.), Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Illinois Gov. JD Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Sanders.
Silver and Druke both ripped each other’s second draft picks, with Druke suggesting that Booker has always been overhyped and Silver suggesting that Harris made “a lot of tactical errors” in the 2024 campaign that raise questions about her political instincts.
“Kamala Harris has universal name recognition,” Druke explained. “I think that she could go some way to clear the field if she decided early to get in. I think we don’t yet know how big of an electoral flop she is.”
“We saw with Joe Biden, he was on the campaign in 2019, right? It was not debate performances, it was not like [his] ability to give a rousing speech or anything like that got him the nomination,” he added. “It was kind of just outliving everyone else and being a consensus candidate.”
Right now, Harris is believed to be deciding between a run for California governor in 2026 and a run for the presidency in 2028.
One of the key influencers that helped bring about Biden’s downfall and Harris’ rise to the 2024 Democratic standard-bearer was actor George Clooney, who penned a New York Times op-ed raising concerns about the 46th president’s mental acuity.
Clooney has suggested that Moore is the hypothetical Democratic contender “levitating above” the other top names that have been floating around in the early 2028 speculation.
Last cycle, Silver declared that his “gut says Donald Trump” would emerge victorious in the presidential contest, but his prediction models largely pegged the race as a jump-ball contest. He previously predicted that President Trump was more likely than not to lose the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Silver had been catapulted to national notoriety in 2008 when he predicted 49 of 50 states correctly that year.
