Nothing stings as much as making it to the title game and falling short — just ask the 1990s Buffalo Bills. So if your fantasy team has made it this far, to championship week in most leagues, then you know how important it is to make no mistakes in setting your lineup.
You can’t afford a single-digit Josh Freeman performance. You must sidestep injuries to injury-prone gambles like Ryan Mathews — who was on track for a good game until the brittle back got banged up, again.
After suggesting you start Freeman last week vs. the Saints and the fragile and underperforming running back Mathews, what recommendation does the Tracker offer this week? Another RB with an injury history, who happens to be playing the same Saints who shut out Freeman & Co. last week.
DeMarco Murray hasn’t been a beacon of good health in his two seasons, but when on the field he has performed. Though he hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 1 vs. the Giants, Murray has scored in each of the three games since returning from a foot injury that caused him to miss six games.
He faces a Saints defense that has given up more than 100 yards on the ground in 10 of 14 games, and held opposing teams’ RBs to fewer than 10 fantasy points just twice.
We don’t put much stock in last week’s sudden rise to defend the run. The Bucs fell behind early, forcing them to abandon the ground game. A Saints blowout of Dallas would be surprising, so there’s no reason to think the Cowboys will have to play catch-up all afternoon.
Murray also gives you the opportunity for big plays — and the bonus fantasy points that come with them.
To earn a title this week, lean on Murray ahead of Ray Rice, Frank Gore or BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
BIG WEEKS
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers, vs. Raiders
In case you haven’t noticed, Newton has been fantastic of late. Dating back to Week 10 vs. the Bucs, he has 10 passing TDs, no INTs and three rushing scores. Last week vs. Chiefs was first time all season Raiders did not allow a passing TD.
Danny Amendola, WR, Rams, at Buccaneers
Has battled a foot problem all season, but when on the field he gets a lot of targets. Bucs have league’s worst fantasy pass defense.
Tony Scheffler, TE, Lions, vs. Falcons
Atlanta is tough against WRs in pass defense (third fewest points allowed) but much more generous to TEs (21st). Lions are going to throw the ball, and fellow TE Brandon Pettigrew (ankle) is banged up. REMINDER: This game is tonight!
Cardinals, DEF/ST, vs. Bears
CB Patrick Peterson will blanket WR Brandon Marshall, forcing Bears QB Jay Cutler to throw elsewhere. Don’t trust Cutler throwing anywhere other than to Marshall.
SMALL WEAKS
Drew Brees, QB, Saints, at Cowboys
Would sit him if you have Newton or Robert Griffin III. In past two road games, Brees has one passing TD and seven INTs. Dallas has given up more than one passing TD in just five games this season.
Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers, at Jets
After exploding onto the scene in the second half of the season, last week’s donut vs. the Panthers was surprising. Don’t expect a huge day tomorrow vs. the league’s second-stingiest fantasy pass defense.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals, at Steelers
Has just one 100-yard game all season (Week 9 vs. Broncos). If he doesn’t get in the end zone, he doesn’t do well in fantasy formats. Steelers rank third in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots, at Jaguars
Pats might run up a truckload of points, but can’t see them being forced to kick many field goals. Would explore waiver options, because this looks like a six-point game for Gostkowski.
The Decision
Drew Loftis and Anthony Sulla-Heffinger tell you who you should start:
Darren McFadden vs. Trent Richardson
Drew: McFadden — I try to fend off a late-season push from Sulla-Heff. by going to the Raiders’ dynamic RB against a run defense that, although better in the past couple weeks, still inspires little confidence. Carolina has given up big days to Jamaal Charles, Bryce Brown, Doug Martin and Andre Brown. DMC’s role in the passing game cannot be ignored.
Anthony: Richardson — I’m going to dip back into the well for this one and go with Richardson again. The rookie running back has not had impressive yard totals over the past two weeks (42 in Week 14, 28 in Week 15), but he has found the end zone twice in each of those games. When Cleveland gets down to the goal line, Richardson is going to get the rock, so the fact the Broncos allow just 91 rushing yards per game doesn’t concern me.
Last week: Anthony 17 (Cam Newton — 231 pass yards, 2 TDs, 7 rush yards), Drew 1 (Josh Freeman — 279 pass yards, 4 INTs, 8 rush yards)
Season: Drew leads, 7-6-2
dloftis@nypost.com