The Rivalry?renews at Fenway Park on Tuesday and that makes this a good time to say the heck with The Rivalry.
Not because Yankees-Red Sox is played out. Though it kind of is. It is because if you are narrowly focusing on Yankees-Red Sox, you are missing a bigger, more important picture. Twice in the past four years, four AL East teams won at least 85 games.
It speaks to the depth in the division. If you need more, well, four different AL East clubs have made the playoffs in the past two years and three different teams have won the division in the past four years. Translations: There are a lot of good teams in this division. There are going to be plenty of meaningful games within the division that have nothing to do with Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Three weeks into the season, the five AL East clubs are separated by 2 ?/? games. No team has run away. No club has fallen apart. No club has given reason to believe in it without question. No club has given reason to dismiss it completely.
Only once in the wild-card era (not counting the shortened 1994-95 seasons) have five teams even finished within nine wins of each other (the 2005 NL East, when five teams finished .500 or better). Could this be the second time? A four-team race certainly seems in play.
So here is your first super-duper, way-too-small-a-sample-size check-in and check-up on the five AL East clubs:
Yankees
They lead the division despite being outscored by nine runs (lose a game 16-1 and it will certainly mess with such items). They also were 11-8 through 19 games last year, but you know the story: They were broken, the Red Sox were magical and the Rays were better.
The Yanks had a magic-carpet spring training in which they were essentially untouched by injury, particularly the rotation. But even then Brian Cashman said, “You ready for the storm because the storm is coming.” The elbow injury to Ivan Nova is the latest and most serious of a run of April injuries. The Yankees could potentially withstand a punch there if Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda continue to perform like top-of-the-rotation starters.
But they have fragility throughout the rotation, and where would you put the chances of Tanaka, Pineda, CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda combining for 120 starts? Ten percent? Twenty?
??Most pleasant surprises, to date: Yangervis Solarte (team-best .906 OPS), Shawn Kelley/Adam Warren (dependable pen arms), Jacoby Ellsbury just might be worth a bunch of money.
??Biggest disappointments, to date: Loss of Nova, continuing absence of Sabathia’s velocity, questions about Mark Teixeira’s bat speed.
Red Sox
They have used five leadoff men to replace a guy named Ellsbury and the result: a .190 average and .555 OPS (second-worst in the majors), which is a big reason why they have gone from scoring 57 more runs than any team last year to, heading into Monday’s action, ranking 24th in runs this season.
The Red Sox held to their strict financial philosophy and refused to sign walk-year ace Jon Lester long-term. He has pitched brilliantly, the rest of the rotation, not so much, and Clay Buchholz (7.71 ERA) is a big worry.
??Most pleasant surprises, to date:?Chris Capuano as a reliever, Grady Sizemore’s health, Xander Bogaerts’ precocious plate discipline.
??Biggest disappointments, to date: Daniel Nava’s plummet, A.J. Pierzynski’s ineffectiveness, what the injuries of Will Middlebrooks/Shane Victorino have done on both sides of the ball.
Rays
There were many reasons for a common belief that this was the best Rays roster ever, but — as always — it began with their rotation. But now Matt Moore has been lost for the season, and Alex Cobb and Jeremy Hellickson are still about a month away from a return. This is going to test Tampa’s depth and its superb resourcefulness/resolve.
??Most pleasant surprises, to date:?Ryan Hanigan’s offensive rebound, the continuing underappreciated excellence of Ben Zobrist, Grant Balfour’s seamless closer takeover from Fernando Rodney.
??Biggest disappointments, to date: Wil Myers’ inability to honor his pedigree, ditto for Jake Odorizzi, David DeJesus’ ineffectiveness.
Orioles
The concern about the Orioles has played out: Chris Tillman is following through on a strong 2013, but the rest of the rotation continues to be a problem. Can the Orioles get in-season help from top prospects Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy (in the late stages of Tommy John rehab) or Johan Santana (building up in extended spring)?
??Most pleasant surprises, to date: Zach Britton and Evan Meek starring out of the pen, Delmon Young as a useful platoon piece/reserve, Manny Machado rehabbing well from knee surgery and probably ready to rejoin the club about May 1.
??Biggest disappointments, to date:?Chris Davis’ absent power, Nick Markakis’ continuing lack of oomph, Ubaldo Jimenez’s inability to navigate the AL East.
Blue Jays
A darling pick to finish first last year after they invested big dollars and prospects, the Jays became the common pick to finish last this season after doing little in the offseason. Toronto still might finish in the cellar, specifically because of big questions about rotation depth.
However, if there were awards for the three-week mark, Jose Bautista might be the MVP and Mark Buehrle the Cy Young and — if that duo keeps up strong work — they will either help Toronto find its way into the race or be two of the more interesting trade candidates come July.
??Most pleasant surprises, to date: Drew Hutchison has pitched well after Tommy John surgery, Melky Cabrera is playing like the All-Star of two years ago (how is he doing that?), Dioner Navarro has received praise for his handling of the staff while driving in the second-most runs on the team.
??Biggest disappointments, to date: R.A. Dickey’s AL problems persist, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus have hit for a bit of power, but not much else, Edwin Encarnacion (78 homers the past two years) has none this year.