What if I told you the Marlins traded an outfielder in the offseason who might win an MVP in 2018 — and it wasn’t Giancarlo Stanton?
What if I told you that a Tampa Bay team that did more to devalue starting pitching than any in history, just might have a starter who will capture the AL Cy Young?
What if I told you that once it became relatively evident Shohei Ohtani was going to need Tommy John surgery, he really began to do the work that could make him the AL Rookie of the Year?
What if I told you the Rockies would spend $106 million last offseason on relievers and continue to play in the offensive haven of Coors Field and win because of starting pitching?
It was that kind of strange season, one in which for the first time you were more likely to see a strikeout than a hit — going into Saturday it was 40,503 hits to 40,601 strikeouts. As recently as 2016, there were still 3,294 more hits than whiffs and the differential was 11,088 just a decade ago.
Those numbers chill a baseball leadership concerned about retaining and attaining fans when nearly 35 percent of all outcomes end in a strikeout, walk, home run or hit by pitch. The internal debates about how to foster balls in play and evoke more consistent action obsess the Commissioner’s Office. That is for the big picture. In a smaller window we are left to figure out awards in a sport in which standards are shifting — not just more strikeouts than ever, but less concerns than ever about pitcher wins, RBIs, batting average and even who starts or finishes a game:
NL Cy Young
Jacob DeGrom, Mets
The righty could have won zero games and this would be his award. In 2018, he was the best pitcher on the planet. That he finished 10-9 reflects those around him. DeGrom was a pitching Odysseus. To get from March 29 to Sept. 29, he endured obstacles not only from the competition, but often from his own team refusing to score for him and — particularly in the first half — having about as much range on defense as Larry The Cable Guy has as an actor.
That he emerged with his sanity and a 1.70 ERA was a tribute to genius. I will repeat a previous comparison: DeGrom reminds me of a starting version of Mariano Rivera in athleticism, laser focus, serenity, fluidity and humility. He gave up three or fewer runs — earned or unearned and, again, holding down either with this defense was something — in 31 of 32 starts. It was four runs in the other start. Eighteen times deGrom worked at least seven innings and gave up two or fewer earned runs, the most since Max Scherzer did the same in 2016. Scherzer was 14-1 in such games and won the Cy Young. DeGrom was 6-5. The record was not his fault. The pitching was all his responsibility — and brilliant.
2. Scherzer, Nationals. 3. Aaron Nola, Phillies. 4. Kyle Freeland, Rockies. 5. Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks.
NL Anti-Cy Young
Yu Darvish/Tyler Chatwood, Cubs
Chicago invested nine years and $164 million in Darvish and Chatwood last offseason to fortify its rotation from the top and bottom. In 32 combined appearances (28 starts) the duo was 5-9 with a 5.20 ERA and were worth minus-0.3 WAR (Fangraphs). Chatwood’s spin-rate allure did not translate for the Cubs as Charlie Morton’s did for the Astros. Chatwood never found the strike zone consistently — or success. Darvish, it turns out, might not be able to handle big spots or large cities. He made just eight starts and ultimately needed elbow clean-up surgery.
2. Homer Bailey, Reds. 3. Jake McGee/Bryan Shaw, Rockies. 4. Anthony Swarzak, Mets. 5. Jeff Samardzija, Giants.
AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander, Astros
In researching deGrom, I noticed that he had a better ERA-plus than Snell (219-216), but that going into his Saturday start Snell’s mark at 116 percent better than MLB average factoring in league and park was the best in the AL since Pedro Martinez’s otherworldly 291 in 2000.
So why is Snell not my choice? Well, I think he was the AL’s most valuable pitcher, making the Rays’ opener strategy work as essentially their only dedicated starter, especially once Chris Archer was traded. His excellence saved bullpen arms for other days. Still, his final innings total will be well south of Corey Kluber’s 203?/? innings, the fewest any AL Cy-winning starter has had in an uninterrupted season.
Durability and workload still matter. Verlander went into his Saturday start with 208 innings — roughly four eight-inning starts more than Snell worked. Verlander led the AL in pitching WAR (Fangraphs), averaged 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings and just 1.56 walks (both second in the AL) — then authored six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts Saturday against Baltimore. This was not only a Cy season for Verlander, but — if it were needed — he solidified his Cooperstown credentials as well.
On Aug. 30, 2017, the Astros had neither Verlander nor Gerrit Cole. Today the defending champs have two guys who were in this Cy discussion.
2. Snell. 3. Corey Kluber, Indians. 4. Chris Sale, Red Sox. 5. Cole.
AL Anti-Cy Young
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
There were others who pitched worse — pretty much anyone who started for the Orioles or Rangers, for example. But as the Mariners excavate why they fell apart and have still failed to make the postseason since 2001, how about Hernandez managing one quality start in his last 10? No active player has more service time without qualifying for the playoffs and Hernandez is no innocent bystander — he has not pitched well down the stretch in years that Seattle even has had a chance.
2. Dylan Bundy/Andrew Cashner, Orioles. 3. Matt Moore/Martin Perez, Rangers. 4. Sonny Gray, Yankees. 5. Drew Pomeranz, Red Sox.
NL MVP
Christian Yelich, Brewers
The Marlins traded Stanton, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, breaking up the NL’s best outfield. You could understand wanting to get rid of as much of the 10 years left on Stanton as possible. And Ozuna was to be a free agent after the 2019 campaign. But Yelich was signed reasonably (five years at $58.25 million at the time of the deal). Should Miami have just kept him, extended J.T. Realmuto and built around those elite players? Yelich blossomed in full in Milwaukee — entering the final weekend leading the NL in average, slugging and OPS. Plus, he more than anyone carried the Brewers late into the playoffs.
2. Javier Baez, Cubs. 3. Freddie Freeman, Braves. 4. Trevor Story, Rockies. 5. Lorenzo Cain, Brewers.
NL Anti-MVP
Dexter Fowler, Cardinals
Just two seasons into a five-year, $82.5 million he produced the worst batting average ever (.180) by a Cardinals outfielder allowed to bat at least 325 times. He fractured his foot, St. Louis played better without him and now he might just be an expensive reserve.
2. Eric Hosmer, Padres. 3. Lewis Brinson, Marlins. 4. Jose Reyes, Mets. 5. Scott Kingery, Phillies.
AL MVP
Mookie Betts, Red Sox
Like Michael Jordan and LeBron James, voters seem to be finding reasons not to vote for the best player in the sport annually, or else Mike Trout would just win this award every year. What is remarkable is Trout might have had his best season, and an argument can be made that Betts’ was still better. So, this is not simply Trout being penalized because the Angels again failed miserably around him.
You want an idea how badly the Angels continue to fail Trout? He hit 39 homers, yet drove in just 79 runs and it was not because he was lacking in the clutch. His slashline with runners in scoring position: .355/.583/.750. That was a major league-best 1.333 OPS in those circumstances.
To beat Trout for AL MVP in 2018 was going to take an historic season. Betts provided that. He actually topped Trout in WAR, which speaks to the brilliance of Betts’ all-round game. He led the majors in batting and slugging, stole 30 bases and might be the best defensive right fielder — ever. His slash line with runners in scoring position? Troutian: .325/.496/.714. Which was 1.210, third bests in the majors.
Just an aside, a five-slot limit means leaving two great seasons off this ballot. Sorry to Boston’s J.D. Martinez and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor here.
2. Trout. 3. Alex Bregman, Astros. 4. Jose Ramirez, Indians. 5. Matt Chapman, A’s.
AL Anti-MVP
Chris Davis, Orioles
There was no easier choice for any category. Davis simply had one of the worst years ever. If he did not have a contract, he would likely be out of the majors. Scary for the Orioles, his contract still has four years at $92 million left. He had a minus-3.1 WAR. He hit .168 (the lowest for a qualified hitter in the Live Ball Era) and struck out 37 percent of the time.
2. Byron Buxton/Miguel Sano, Twins. 3. Zack Cozart, Angels. 4. Carlos Gomez, Rays. 5. Dee Gordon, Mariners.
NL Rookie of the Year
Ronald Acuna, Braves
This is the top five in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) age 20 or younger, at least 400 plate appearances in OPS-plus in their rookie season: 1. Trout, 168; 2. Ted Williams, 150; 3. Acuna, 145; 4. Frank Robinson, 143; 5. Juan Soto, 139. So I would say Acuna and Soto are in pretty good company and on a decent track. It is mainly splitting hairs for which should receive this award. Soto’s plate discipline is fantastic, but I gave the nod to Acuna with his speed and defense.
Jeff McNeil did not make the top five, but that is only because the NL had so many terrific rookie campaigns and his began too late. But a hat tip to him and Miami’s Brian Anderson and San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez. They were hard to leave off.
2. Soto, Nationals. 3. Walker Buehler, Dodgers. 4. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals. 5. Harrison Bader, Cardinals.
AL Rookie of the Year
Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Did Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres have wonderful rookie years? You bet? Tampa Bay’s Joey Wendle, too. But I have seen their rookie years in some form or fashion previously. Ohtani was Ruthian. No, literally Ruthian. No one had pitched and hit like this since Babe Ruth in 1919.
In 10 starts, Ohtani had an ERA 26 percent better than MLB average and in 359 plate appearances he had an OPS 56 percent better than league average. A ligament issue cost him a month in total play and ultimately led to needing Tommy John surgery. But he became a more regular hitter on July 3 (starting just once after that) and in that period, his .960 OPS was fifth in the AL (minimum 225 plate appearances) behind Trout, Betts, Martinez and Bregman and in front of Chapman. You know, the guys competing for MVP.
2. Andujar. 3. Torres. 4. Wendle. 5. Brad Keller, Royals.
NL Manager of the Year
Bud Black, Rockies
Just think, the Nationals had Black sealed and delivered, but not signed after the 2015 season and penny-pinched, and Black went to Colorado. The Nats got a terrific consolation prize in Dusty Baker and fouled that up by firing him after two NL East titles.
For the first time in Rockies history, they have a young, talented rotation, which helped Colorado flourish despite so many hitting and bullpen malfunctions. Brian Snitker delivered the Braves to the playoffs at least a year earlier than anticipated and Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell has proven himself among the majors’ best managers over time. I picked a last-place manager, Don Mattingly, fifth because he brought professionalism to a hopeless situation.
2. Snitker. 3. Counsell. 4. Mike Shildt, Cardinals. 5. Mattingly, Marlins.
AL Manager of the Year
Kevin Cash, Rays
I don’t know if there was a tougher category. If you pick Cash, it means not taking a manager (Alex Cora) who led a historic team (the Red Sox) to its most wins ever in a season. It means not selecting a manager (Bob Melvin) who guided a team (A’s) to the playoffs after beginning the season with MLB’s lowest payroll. If you go with either, got it, totally logical.
But by the trade deadline this year, Cash no longer had at his disposal the following from last year’s teams: four of the five who led the Rays in starts, 10 of the top 12 who led in relief appearances and 12 of the top 14 in plate appearances. Plus three of their best young starters (Anthony Banda, Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon) combined for one start and each needed Tommy John surgery. Plus in a power-crazy time, the Rays had an MLB-low one player (C.J. Cron) top 15 homers. Tampa Bay led the majors in plate appearances by rookie hitters and games appeared in by rookie pitchers.
Yet, the Rays were not eliminated from playoff contention until Sept. 24 because Cash made the opener strategy work and found offensive platoons that maximized what he had. And his team bought into it all, playing hard to the end.
2. Cora. 3. Melvin. 4. Aaron Boone, Yankees. 5. Terry Francona, Indians.