The only thing that could potentially stop Kathy Hochul from being elected to her first full term as governor of New York is the guy whose ouster over a sex harassment scandal and nursing home deaths cover-up made her the state’s top official, a new poll finds.
The Siena College survey shows Hochul running away, with 52% of registered Democrats backing the governor, followed by city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams with 12% and Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi with 11% — a yawning, 41-point gap.
But Hochul’s lead shrinks to 8 points if predecessor Andrew Cuomo enters the primary. Hochul leads Cuomo 38% to 30% with 10% for Suozzi and 7% for Williams, with the rest of Democrats undecided.
A recent Emerson College poll had Hochul leading Cuomo by just 4 points.
Cuomo, who resigned under the threat of impeachment last August after a devastating investigative report by state Attorney General Letitia James’ office concluded that he sexually harassed or mistreated multiple women, is unlikely to enter the primary. The deadline is next week for submitting petitions to qualify for ballot status, though Cuomo has not ruled out running in the general election as an independent. He has a war chest of nearly $20 million.
The exiled three-term Democratic ex-governor has been running campaign-style TV ads as part of a strategy to lift his sagging popularity and counter the tag that he’s a creepy harasser.
Still, Cuomo remains deeply unpopular, complicating any comeback bid.
Sixty percent of all registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Cuomo, while only 32% have a favorable opinion.
Fifty-six percent of voters concluded that Cuomo sexually harassed multiple women, while only 22% said he did not, with the rest undecided.
Two-thirds of voters said he shouldn’t run again for governor. Even 54% of Democrats said they don’t want him back.
Meanwhile, Hochul — Cuomo’s hand-picked lieutenant governor — is viewed favorably by 45% of all voters and unfavorably by 35%. Two-thirds of Democrats like her, while 17% do not.
Hochul remains the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary.
“In a three-way race, Hochul has a commanding lead no matter how you look at it. She leads by 29 points in New York City, 28 points in the downstate suburbs and 56 points upstate. She leads with liberals by 42 points and leads Williams among Black Democrats 39-17%,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Hochul has a 50-point net positive favorability rating among Democrats, compared to Cuomo’s eight-point net positive rating. More than half of Democrats don’t want Cuomo to run for governor this year and only one-third say he should run in the primary,” Greenberg said.
“Despite all that, Cuomo would be very much in the game — if he decides to put himself in the game.”
The poll shows Hochul and Cuomo are tied in New York City, but she leads by 8 points in the suburbs and 25 points upstate.
“Cuomo has a 2-to-1 lead with Black Democrats and Hochul has a comparable lead among white Democrats, while Latinos are closely divided,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, while Hochul leads among men by 15 points, she only leads with women by 4 points.”
The poll of 804 voters conducted from March 20 to 24 provides a glimmer of hope for
Republicans in the general election.
Only 42% of voters think Hochul is doing a good or excellent job as governor while 53% rated her performance as fair or poor.
If Hochul is the Dem nominee, 43% would vote for her, but another 43% said
they would prefer to vote for someone else.
Only 40% of voters said the state is headed in the right direction, while 49% said it’s on the wrong track.
Only 36% said the US is headed in the right direction, 57% on the wrong track.
The Siena College survey did not ask about the Republican primary for governor. Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin is the presumptive GOP nominee, but he’ll likely face a primary challenge from former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, President Donald Trump’s former White House aide Andrew Giuliani and businessman Harry Wilson.
The poll of 804 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. There were 369 Democrats for the primary questions and those results have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
Cuomo was heartened with the latest poll findings, with a rep claiming more voters are taking a fresh look at the ex-governor..
“There are now two polls showing similar results in the last few weeks and with today’s Siena survey [former] Gov. Cuomo’s support effectively doubled in a few months — demonstrating that when New Yorkers have the facts, they realize the politicalization and the corruption of the process that was used to force from office a governor with a real record of results that improved people’s lives,” said Cuomo spokesman Richard Azzopardi. “This was after only two recent speeches where he gave his thoughts on the problems facing this state, nation, and the Democratic Party as a whole.”
