UFC Mexico returns to broadcast television on ESPN2 this weekend for the prelim card.
We have 13 fights to run through and bet on, and with no tape delay on cable, there should be plenty of excellent live-betting spots to monitor.
Below, we give betting strategies for all the fights on Saturday’s card, so let’s dive into what will be an interesting night of combat.?
Of note, these fights are at elevation, so expect some combatants to run out of energy sooner than others. The debauchery begins at 4 p.m. ET, on ESPN2.?
Here are my UFC Mexico predictions:
UFC Mexico predictions
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
Brandon Moreno headlines in his hometown of Mexico City in what should be a chaotic night of fights.
Moreno did not get a chance to participate in the Sphere Card on Mexican Independence Day, so expect him to be specifically motivated in this fight.
His opponent, Erceg, has lost two straight against the elite competition that the UFC has to offer.?
Is it that Erceg is having bad nights at the office, or is he just not at that level? I tend to lean towards the latter side of that dilemma.?
Moreno’s advanced stats clearly favor him when compared to Erceg.
Erceg has a net strike rate (strikes landed minus strikes absorbed per minute) of plus-.15, whereas Moreno comes in at plus-.46.?
Moreno has a better strength of schedule, having fought and held the title for several years and defeated Amir Albazi last time out.
Moreno should be fine to get a win here, considering he’s the better striker and better offensive grappler.
Target the “Assassin Baby” on Saturday night to win by decision.
Pick: Moreno by decision (+130, Bet365 Sportsbook).
Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
These two will be swinging for the fences, no doubt. But will they be able to hold up through the test of time while fighting in elevation?
That’s the question we need answered.?
Looking at Torres’s UFC career, it’s simply chaos, with all of his fights in the UFC ending in the first round.
He has three wins and one loss, coming last time out on a nasty TKO defeat to Ignacio Bahamondes.?
Where things get interesting is Dober isn’t necessarily ending every fight in the first round. Only two of his past six fights have ended in the first round, and one went to decision.?
I think this one goes a bit longer, with Dober leading the dance.?
Picks: Fight starts Round 2 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook); fight goes the distance (+470, FanDuel)
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UFC Mexico full card picks for prelims and main card
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg: Moreno by decision (+130, Bet365 Sportsbook).
Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober Fight starts Round 2 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook); fight goes the distance (+470, FanDuel)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer: Pyfer moneyline for parlays (-310, Caesars Sportsbook).
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales: Rosas Jr. by submission (+285, BetRivers).
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira: Martinez by decision (+160, FanDuel).
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas: Rodriguez ML (-148, DraftKings).
Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara: Vergara ML (+225, BetRivers).
Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier: Gautier by KO/TKO (-130, BetMGM).
Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa: Fight goes the distance (-160, DraftKings).
Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri: Pass.
Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel: Garcia by submission (+600, FanDuel).
Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda: Pass.
Marquel Mederos vs. Austin Hubbard: Fight goes the distance (-225, BetRivers).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
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