The Mets continue their road trip with a series-opener against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night.
Clay Holmes is slated to make his fourth start of the season for the Mets, while Joe Ryan will look to continue his hot start to 2025 for the Twins.
The Mets are +100 to win Monday night’s contest in the Twin Cities.
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Mets vs. Twins prediction
The numbers for Ryan look great out of the gates.
The 28-year-old has pitched to a 2.65 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 17 innings across three starts.
Opponents are batting just .200 against Ryan, who has yet to walk a batter this season.
It’s hard to poke holes in those numbers, but it is important to look deeper at a pitcher’s stat line when it comes to betting.
Ryan’s batted-ball and Statcast data is fine, but it does suggest that the right-hander has been fortunate so far.
Ryan owns a 3.97 xFIP and 3.20 xERA so far, both of which are still impressive, but those numbers suggest that his ERA should be higher than it currently stands.
Mets vs. Twins pick
Holmes’ numbers look fine for the Mets through three starts, but he continues to get bit by his inability to dole out free passes.
The righty is averaging 5.52 walks per 9 innings so far this season, which has muted his effectiveness and his ability to pitch deeper in games.
With Ryan due for some negative regression and Holmes struggling to find the plate, the over looks like a play Monday evening in Minneapolis.
The Play: Over 8 (+100)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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