One of the main questions going into the 2025 NFL Draft surrounds how many quarterbacks will be picked in Round 1 on Thursday night.
At first, it seemed like a given that at least two — Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders — would walk the stage at Lambeau Field in the first round. Jaxson Dart was initially seen as a 50-50 shot.
The odds reflected that, with Over 2.5 quarterbacks taken sitting as a clear — but not heavy — favorite at -160 odds at BetMGM.
At that point, the QB over/under prop felt like a stand-in for whether or not you thought Dart would be picked in Round 1 because it was thought to be a sure thing that Ward and Sanders would have their names called Thursday.
Then, over the course of Draft Week, the hype surrounding Sanders began to cool, and there was talk that he could fall to the Steelers at No. 21, and if they passed on him, out of the first round entirely.
There was also buzz that Dart would be picked ahead of Sanders, with the Ole Miss quarterback linked to the Saints and Giants.
While that was happening, the odds on Sanders to go inside the top 10 began to drift, and so did the price on Over 2.5 quarterbacks taken in Round 1.
It essentially became a coin flip by the end of the day on Wednesday.
But now, there seems to be growing confidence in the betting market that both Sanders and Dart will be selected in Round 1.
BetMGM now has Over 2.5 quarterbacks listed at -17 odds5, a 50-cent move from where it was yesterday afternoon.
Over at bet365, the number has budged from -110 to -140.
Those aren’t massive shifts, but they are an indication that perhaps everyone was getting a little carried away with the idea that Sanders would tumble out of the first round.
The days before the NFL Draft are peak silly season, and it’s not a new phenomenon to see a prediction like that gain serious legs only to get quashed by cooler heads as we get closer and closer to the show.
Time will tell if that’s the case with the rise and fall of Sanders’ draft stock.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.