Sports

Big East tournament preview: It’s not all about Villanova this time

The Big East belongs to Villanova again. But this time, no one believes it.

Despite winning an outright league championship for the fifth time in six years, the Wildcats hardly resemble a favorite in pursuit of a third straight Big East Tournament title, losing five of their past eight games and lowering Jay Wright’s confidence of another Madison Square Garden coronation taking place this week.

“This is the only league in the country in which every team has a winning record overall,” the Villanova coach said. “Any team can win [the tournament].”

Half the league — Marquette, DePaul, Butler, Creighton and Xavier — has never won the event. Two of the Big East’s founding members are in the midst of once-unthinkable championship droughts, with St. John’s last cutting down a net in 2000, and Georgetown most recently winning it in 2007.

The window may never open so wide again.

Villanova finished with the fewest league wins (13) by a champion since the conference was reconfigured in 2013. Second-place Marquette has lost four straight. Four teams tied for third place. Only two games back in the standings, three teams tied for last place.

This year, the Big East Tournament may be even more unpredictable than the Big Dance.

Here’s a look at the 10-team field:

No. 1 Villanova (22-9, 13-5)

Coach: Jay Wright

Star: Phil Booth (18.6 ppg, 3.9 apg) The key role player on two national championship teams shined with the increased weight on his shoulders, nearly doubling his scoring average and leading the team in assists.

X factor: Collin Gillespie (11.3 ppg, 2.8 apg) When the Wildcats were 19-4, the sophomore guard was shooting 41.8 percent from the perimeter. Since then, the team has gone 3-5 and Gillespie has hit 28.9 percent of 3-pointers.

Strength: Experience. The Wildcats lost most of last year’s national championship core, but still have several players who own title rings.

Weakness: Depth. Booth and Eric Paschall score almost half of the team’s points, and only four players average more than 5.5 points per game.

Can win title if: The formula still fits. Last year, Villanova earned a ring by hitting over 40 percent from the perimeter. This year, the Wildcats rank fourth in the nation in 3-pointers attempted (30.1 per game), but have dropped to 35.5 percent shooting.

Odds: 11/5

No. 2 Marquette (23-8, 12-6)

Markus Howard
Markus HowardGetty Images

Coach: Steve Wojciechowski

Star: Markus Howard (25.0 ppg, 4.0 apg). One of the premier scorers in the country and the likely Big East Player of the Year, the 5-foot-11 guard scored 30 points or more nine times, including a magnificent 53-point outburst against Creighton.

X factor: Sacar Anim (8.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) Marquette’s best defender, Anim improved at the offensive end as the season has progressed. When he reaches double figures, the Golden Eagles are 9-2.

Strength: Shooting. Marquette hits 39.4 percent of its 3-point attempts and led the Big East in free-throw shooting (76.4 percent).

Weakness: Turnovers. Marquette is ninth in the league in turnover margin (-1.9) and averages more turnovers (13.9) than assists (13.7).

Can win title if: A new start solves their problems. The Golden Eagles haven’t won since Feb. 23, but their talent and depth remain among the league’s elite.

Odds: 5/2

No. 3 Seton Hall (18-12, 9-9)

Coach: Kevin Willard

Star: Myles Powell (22.6 ppg, 2.0 spg) The team’s only returning starter has carried Seton Hall to a likely fourth straight NCAA Tournament berth, with his incredible shot-making and vastly improved all-around game.

X factor: Myles Cale (10.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) The sophomore is capable of big time scoring efforts — proven against Villanova, Maryland and Kentucky — but the team’s only other double-digit scorer is just as likely to be invisible on offense.

Strength: Defense. Led by shutdown guard Quincy McKnight, the Pirates were second in the Big East in field-goal defense (42.9 percent), and third in 3-point defense (33.9).

Weakness: 3-point shooting. The Pirates were last in the Big East, at 32.5 percent.

Can win title if: Powell remains Superman, Cale and Sandro Mamukelashvili step up, and the confidence from last week’s NCAA-clinching wins over Marquette and Villanova carries over.

Odds: 7/1

No. 4 Xavier (17-14, 9-9)

Coach: Travis Steele

Star: Naji Marshall (14.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg) The sophomore wing came on late, averaging 20.8 points over his last seven games, but an ankle injury could slow him down this week.

X factor: Zach Hankins (10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg) The former Division II Player of the Year, a 6-foot-11 wide body, is a tough cover on the low blocks when he’s active and decisive.

Strength: Size. Xavier can pound you in the paint with Tyrique Jones and Hankins, who both present problems on the offensive glass.

Weakness: Experience. Xavier’s two best players — Marshall and guard Paul Scruggs — are sophomores, and its three seniors — Kyle Castlin, Ryan Welage and Hankins — are all transfers who have never played in the Big East Tournament.

Can win title if: Marshall’s ankle heals and the big men allow the slowest-paced team in the league to keep each game at a crawl.

Odds: 9/1

No. 5 Creighton (18-13, 9-9)

Coach: Greg McDermott

Star: Ty-Shon Alexander (16.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg) The sophomore guard was one of the league’s most improved players and shot nearly 38 percent from outside.

X factor: Martin Krampelj (13.6 ppg, 6.9 RPG) The 6-foot-9 forward from Slovenia is the biggest difference-maker on the perimeter-oriented roster, representing the team’s only interior presence.

Strength: Shooting. The second-highest scoring team in the Big East hits 48.5 percent from the field, and nearly 40 percent of 3-pointers.

Weakness: Defense. The Bluejays allow opponents to shoot a league-high 47.9 percent from the field, and average just 2.5 blocks per game.

Can win title if: Momentum matters. After sitting at .500 (13-13) on Feb. 17, Creighton closed the regular season with five straight wins.

Odds: 11/2

No. 6 Georgetown (19-12, 9-9)

Coach: Patrick Ewing

Star: Jessie Govan (17.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg) The big man from Queens can beat you inside and out.

X factor: Mac McClung (13.4 ppg, 2.0 apg) The ultra-athletic 6-foot-2 freshman was the team’s leading scorer in wins over Villanova and St. John’s — he also went for 38 against Arkansas-Little Rock — but has sprinkled in three single-digit scoring efforts in the past month.

Strength: Tempo. Jump-started by strong rebounding, the Hoyas play at the fastest-pace in the Big East and lead the league with 80.6 points per game.

Weakness: Second-half stops. Georgetown’s defense noticeably slips after halftime, ranking 323rd in the nation in points allowed (41.2).

Can win title if: The kids come to play. Ewing can count on Govan, but needs its three members of the Big East All-Freshman team — McClung, James Akinjo and Josh LeBlanc — to be at their best to make a long-awaited run.

Odds: 15/1

No. 7 St. John’s (20-11, 8-10)

Coach: Chris Mullin

Star: Shamorie Ponds (19.8 ppg, 5.2 apg) The Brooklyn native was named to the All-Big East first team for the second straight season, ranking third in the league in scoring, second in assists and first in steals (2.6).

X factor: LJ Figueroa (14.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg) The oft-indifferent roster has one constant in the nonstop hustle of the junior college transfer. The 6-foot-6 wing leads the team in field-goal percentage (.512), and is always a steal or putback away from changing a game’s momentum.

Strength: Transition. The Red Storm create a Big East-best 15.5 turnovers per game, and are at their best when utilizing the athleticism and speed of their small-ball lineup.

Weakness: Size. St. John’s has been exploited underneath in each of Mullin’s four years as coach, and have been knocked back on the bubble because of an 0-6 mark against the bigger lineups of Xavier, Providence and DePaul.

Can win title if: Focus doesn’t fizzle. St. John’s might be the most talented team in the league, but motivation and effort remain a constant struggle, preventing the team from winning more than two games in a row since Big East play began.

Odds: 10/1

No. 8 Providence (17-14, 7-11)

Coach: Ed Cooley

Star: Alpha Diallo (16.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg) The physical wing from Harlem rebounds like a center and has improved nearly all of his numbers from last season.

X factor: A.J. Reeves (10.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg) A foot injury cost him seven weeks and led to an inconsistent season, but the freshman wing has star potential and showed it with 24 points in a regular season-closing win over Butler.

Strength: Offensive rebounding. Providence is physical and averages a league-best 10.7 offensive boards.

Weakness: Scoring. The Friars were last in the league in points (71.4), field-goal percentage (.421) and free-throw percentage (.688), while ranking ninth in 3-point shooting (.330).

Can win title if: The league’s most efficient defense gets even better, and the Friars’ woeful attack finally takes advantage of all its second-chance opportunities.

Odds: 25/1

No. 9 Butler (16-15, 7-11)

Coach: LaVall Jordan

Star: Kamar Baldwin (17.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) Steady and reliable, the 6-foot-1 guard can score from anywhere on the floor, and is at his best in the clutch.

X factor: Jordan Tucker (9.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg) When the Duke transfer is on, Butler is tough to beat. The Bulldogs were 6-3 when the sharpshooting wing from White Plains scored in double figures.

Strength: Depth. Jordan will go nine-deep, with every player in the rotation averaging at least 17.8 minutes per game.

Weakness: Interior defense. Lacking a rim protector, Butler was last in the league in blocked shots at 2.0 per game.

Can win title if: The regular season is irrelevant. Butler went 0-4 this year against the first two opponents it would face — Providence and Villanova.

Odds: 15/1

No. 10 DePaul (15-14, 7-11)

Coach: Dave Leitao

Star: Max Strus (19.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) The 6-foot-6 senior has been brilliant at the close of his career, averaging 29.3 points — including 43 in a win over St. John’s — in his past four games.

X factor: Femi Olujobi (13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg). The 6-foot-9 senior from Long Island posted three double-doubles in Big East play, but is prone to no-shows inside, pulling down a single rebound in two of the past five games.

Strength: Rebounding. DePaul hits the boards at a higher rate (54 percent) than any team in the Big East, ranking 22nd in the nation.

Weakness: Perimeter defense. The Blue Demons defend the 3 worse than any team in the league, allowing opponents to shoot 36.7 percent.

Can win title if: The postseason is as bizarre as the regular season. Even if DePaul upsets St. John’s for the third time this season, it would then play No. 2 Marquette, which won its two meetings with DePaul by an average of 14.5 points.

Odds: 60/1

Predictions

Kussoy

Big East champion: No. 5 Creighton
Most Outstanding Player: Creighton’s Mitch Ballock
One of the nation’s most proficient and deadly perimeter attacks has peaked at the right time, entering with five straight wins and a coach (Greg McDermott) who has led the Bluejays to the title game in two of the past five years.

Braziller

Big East champion: No. 3 Seton Hall
Most Outstanding Player: Myles Powell
Powell pulls an Isaiah Whitehead, carrying the Pirates to the crown as he shoots them past Villanova in a classic championship game.

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